The IMF forecasts for Algeria a growth rate of 2.6% in 2012


 

IMF headFor the IMF, the Algerian economy is threatened by the prospect of deterioration of the global economy in 2012.

 

The IMF lowered its growth forecasts for the Algerian economy in 2012 compared to last April (3.1%). It provides for the reduction of unemployment in Algeria, 9.7% in 2012 and 9.3% in 2013 (10% in 2011). For the whole Maghreb, it provides an average growth rate of 19% in 2012, mainly due to the resumption of oil production in Libya, and 6% in 2013 (-1.9% in 2011).

 

The IMF on macroeconomic indicators relatively favorable for Algeria with, however, a downward revision of growth forecasts by providing a GDP growth of 2.6% in 2012 due to increased risk of degradation the global economy.

In its report on the global economic outlook published on the occasion of holding its annual meeting held from 9 to 12 October in Tokyo (Japan), the Fund expects to Algeria GDP growth of 2.6% in 2012 and 3.4% in 2013 against 2.4% in 2011.

In its April forecast, the IMF prognosticated a growth rate of 3.1% in 2012 and 3.4% in 2013 (unchanged), against 2.5% in 2011.

Pushing up its long-term forecast, the IMF predicts growth of 4% in 2017 for the country.

Globally, the IMF has also lowered the rate of growth, particularly in developed countries, relying now on a global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2012 (-0.2 per the forecast for July) and 3.6% in 2013 (-0.3 points).

In addition, the Bretton Woods notes that Algeria is a net creditor, that is to say, its foreign exchange reserves and other foreign financial assets are significantly higher than its debt.

In addition, the IMF indicates that the current account balance will remain positive in the country accounting for 6.2% of GDP in 2012 and 6.1% in 2013, but will drop to 3.5% of GDP in 2017 (against 10% in 2011).

On the issue of employment, the Fund noted that the unemployment rate will experience consecutive declines in Algeria: from 10% in 2011, it will fall to 9.7% in 2012 and 9.3% in 2013.

As for inflation, the IMF believes it should from 8.4% in 2012 to 5% in 2013, against 4.5% in 2011. On this point, it is found that inflation in Algeria is relatively low compared to the average of countries in the MENA region, estimated by the IMF to 10.4% in 2012 and 9.1% in 2013 against 9 7% in 2011.

Moreover, in its projections for the Maghreb region, the IMF predicts average growth rate of 19% in 2012, mainly due to the resumption of oil production in Libya, and 6% in 2013 (against -1 9% in 2011).

 

MENA: towards a growth of 5.3% in 2012

 

As for the MENA region in general, the Fund expects a growth rate of 5.3% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013 (against 3.3% in 2011).

For this region, the IMF notes that the economic dynamics operates at two speeds, explaining the difference in economic performance between exporters and oil importers has increased.

In this regard, the IMF report notes that significant public expenditure involved in most oil exporters have maintained robust growth.

In addition, he noted that political uncertainties and economic changes after the social and political upheavals in some Arab countries, as well as the slowdown in major trading partner countries especially in Europe, and, in some cases, internal conflicts have were all factors that led to” a marked weakening of economic activity.”

For oil-importing countries in the MENA region, he suggests,” the political priority is the preservation or reconstruction of macroeconomic stability while defining and implementing a program of reforms to accelerate growth” .

” Uncertainty and instability have led to a decline in the region, as evidenced by declines in tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI),” he says.

As for the oil exporting countries, the IMF advocates,” the priority is to take advantage of the current rise in oil prices to diversify their economies.”

According to this international financial institution, in most oil-exporting countries, the growth of non-oil GDP is expected to remain robust in 2012, supported by the surge in public spending as oil prices remain at historically high levels, while growth of the oil sector should be “somewhat moderate” after a sharp increase in 2011.

However, the IMF warns, risks in the short term prospects of oil-exporting countries in the MENA region “revolve mainly around oil prices and global growth, given that all major risks to global growth would imply a decrease oil prices. ”

In this regard, the Bretton Woods estimates that spending in this category of countries” have increased to such a level that a significant decline in oil prices could undermine their fiscal situation and jeopardize growth and ongoing investments in their infrastructure sector. ”

Emphasizing the imperative of diversification of the economy, the IMF considers that for oil producing countries, “it will be essential to curb the rise in the cost of benefits that are difficult to reverse.”

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